May 2017 Newsletter

Andre_Nabors

April showers bring May flowers!  Time to “spring” into action and show our potential retirees what we have tooffer.  Many of our communities are filled with hiking trails, water views, cultural amenities.  But most of all, an experience everyone can enjoy.  Simply have a look at our “Seal of Approval” communities, and if you’re not one simply check out this AARC Seal of Approval Recipients to learn more.  We have a full lineup for our annual conference Nov. 15-17 in Wilmington, NC.  Be sure to take advantage of the early-bird registration starting as low as $350 by visiting www.AARCConference.org.  The AARC continues to be your resource in the retiree attraction market!

The level of confidence among American home builders fell in April but remains high according toan industry trade group.  The National Association of Home Builders said its housing-market index dropped in April by three points, a slight fall from the highest level from over a decade.  Builders are reporting continued interest from potential home buyers, as all three of the index components remain strong: current sales, sales expectations, and buyer traffic.  Source / Data: National Association of Home Builders

Sincerely,

Andre’ Nabors Chair, The AARC



Registration is Open for the 2017 Annual Conference – Craig Lawn, Judy Randall Headline 2017 Annual AARC Conference In Wilmington November 15-17

conference-banner1

WILMINGTON, NC – Two top real estate and travel and tourism consultants will headline the 2017 annual Conference of the American Association of Retirement Communities (AARC) at the Hilton Riverside Hotel in Wilmington, NC on November 15-17, AARC Executive Director Wade Adler has announced.

C.Lawn PicCraig Lawn of Asheville, NC will discuss emerging trends in sales and marketing for golf and resort communities, while Judy Randall of Mooresville, NC will present practical strategies on expanding travel and tourism activity at community and regional levels, Adler said. Both Lawn and Randall are internationally respected consultants, each with more than 25 years experience in their respective fields.J.Randall Pic copy

Lawn has helped more than 250 golf and resort communities maximize sales performance in the U.S., Mexico and Australia, and is the author of the industry’s best-seller, Shut Up & Sell. Randall is president/CEO of Randall Travel Marketing, Inc. and has conducted comprehensive visitor research studies for over 150 small, medium and large destinations. She is the co-author of The Top Ten Trends in Travel and Tourism, published annually since 1995.

This year’s conference – with the theme of ‘Catch the Wave’ – will feature an expanded line-up of educational workshops, panel discussions and research presentations, headed by an all-star team of retiree recruitment experts, economic development professionals, real estate developers, specialized software consultants and publishers of print and digital retirement publications.

Presentations include:

  • Golf Courses: Turning what some consider a liability into an asset
  • The Challenging Club Paradigm: Membership Options for Today’s Retiree Club Member
  • Social Media Marketing: Today, Tomorrow & Beyond
  • 40 Years of Evolution: How One Retiree Home Builder Continues to Evolve
  • Real Estate Tech Briefing: How to Connect to Today’s Retiree Buyer

 Also on the agenda is an off-site visit to the nearby Compass Pointe community, where Legacy Homes by Bill Clark is building the 2017 Ideal Home featured in Ideal Living Magazine, with a reception to follow sponsored by the magazine. “Without question, this is the best and most informative AARC Annual Conference in our 20-plus year history,” Adler said. “Those who make the commitment to attend will be guaranteed a place on the inside track to the future of our industry.”

Early Bird Sign Up starts as low as $350, don’t miss your opportunity to attend at the lowest possible rate.  Visit the Sign Up Page now to assure your spot at the 2017 Annual Conference – Conference Sign Up Page

 

conference-banner-2

 


Slow and Steady Growth Wins The Race for Home Building – and the Economy

Gregg Robb and Andrea Riqiuer, Realtor.com | May 15, 2017

Screen Shot 2017-05-30 at 7.16.02 PMThe home-building recovery has been slow and steady—and nearly nine years after the housing crisis, housing construction isn’t yet fully healed.

That’s probably a good thing.

It means housing construction will continue to buoy economic growth for some time—and data out this week will shed light on the strength of the residential construction sector.

The National Association of Home Builders releases its monthly index of builder confidence Monday, followed on Tuesday by the Commerce Department’s data on how many new homes were started in April.

Builder confidence is a reasonably good predictor of housing starts, the process of breaking ground on a home, NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz told MarketWatch.

With inventory of previously-owned homes at long-time lows, economists and housing analysts are looking to home builders to relieve some of the supply pressures in the housing market. And since housing construction—particularly single-family homes that need flooring, furniture and more – helps boost economic growth that may even help lengthen the business cycle.

Builders broke ground on 784,000 single-family homes in 2016, and Dietz forecasts a 9%-10% gain in 2017 and in 2018. He defines a normal level of production—one which would sustain population growth and replace older and obsolete homes—as about 1.3 million single-family starts. He doesn’t think the U.S. will reach that level until 2021 or so.

Housing starts have run at about a 1.2 million pace for the past several months. Total starts and single-family only are about 64% of their long-run averages.

Dietz and other private housing analysts also believe the trend toward building more single-family homes, away from apartments, will continue. In the years after the financial crisis, when many people were unable or unwilling to purchase homes, apartment construction boomed.

Single-family housing starts were roughly two-thirds of all starts in 2016, compared to about three-quarters in 2000. As builders shift production, that’s a bet on a stronger economy and housing market. But it’s also an economic boost.

NAHB estimates that building the average single-family home generates about three jobs, while building a multi-family unit generates just one.

For a construction industry that lost 1.5 million jobs in the wake of the crisis, it helps explain why the pace of recovery has been so slow. Builders are grappling with lots of higher input costs, including land and materials.

Factory snapshot

Manufacturing data is also on deck this week, and two readings early in the week should show a bit of a cool down in the factory sector.

First, on Monday, the Empire State Index tracking activity in New York for May should show a reading close to the 5.2% showing in April. This would be down from eye-popping readings of 16.4 in March and 18.7 in February.

On Tuesday, April industrial output should be up 0.4%, economists believe, down slightly from a 0.5% rise in March and well off the recent top, a 0.8% rise seen in December.

At these levels, both readings would “show manufacturing settling back into a more modest expansion,” said Terry Sheehan, senior analyst at Stone McCarthy Research.



Mortgage Rates Hold Near 2017 Lows as Big Decisions Loom Over Bond Market

Andrea Riqiuer, Realtor.com | May 4, 2017

20d27e40f14cfcb72aed4c4413a9da73w-c0xd-w685_h860_q80Rates for home loans were little changed as markets remained relatively flat, mortgage finance company Freddie Mac said Thursday.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.02%, down one basis point during the week. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage was unchanged at an average of 3.27%. The 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid-adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 3.13%, up from 3.12%.

Those rates don’t include fees associated with obtaining mortgage loans.

The 10-year Treasury note, which the 30-year mortgage roughly tracks, was little changed during the week as investors awaited a Federal Reserve interest rate decision and a health care vote from Congress.

The scant housing data that’s emerged over the past week, an index of pending home sales for March, signalled that the housing market continues to be skewed by extremely tight inventory.



Builder Confidence Continues on Upward Trend

National Association of Home Builders, May 15, 2017

nahb-logoIn a further sign that the housing market continues to strengthen, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose two points in May to a level of 70 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the second highest HMI reading since the downturn.

“This report shows that builders’ optimism in the housing market is solidifying, even as they deal with higher building material costs and shortages of lots and labor,” said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald, a home builder and developer from Kerrville, Texas.

“The HMI measure of future sales conditions reached its highest level since June 2005, a sign of growing consumer confidence in the new home market,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Especially as existing home inventory remains tight, we can expect increased demand for new construction moving forward.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

Two of the three HMI components registered gains in May. The index charting sales expectations in the next six months jumped four points to 79 while the index gauging current sales conditions increased two points to 76. Meanwhile, the component measuring buyer traffic edged one point down to 51.

The three-month moving averages for HMI scores posted gains in three out of the four regions. The Northeast and South each registered three-point gains to 49 and 71, respectively, while the West rose one point to 78. The Midwest was unchanged at 68.

Editor’s Note: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is strictly the product of NAHB Economics, and is not seen or influenced by any outside party prior to being released to the public. HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi. More information on housing statistics is also available at housingeconomics.com.