I’ve been writing the introductions to our organization’s monthly newsletter with a tone intended to be lighthearted. That is, unfortunately, not the case this month. I write this with a very heavy heart, having just watched the memorial service for our dear friend, colleague, resource, entertainer, and the many other things that Frank Carmel was to so many people. Frank’s unexpected passing leaves a large hole in our industry – but far more importantly, it leaves a gaping hole in the hearts of all of us who knew him, and who enjoyed his presence. From the stories shared in the memorial service, that is a long and deeply affected list of folks.
As I mentioned earlier, Frank Carmel was many things to many people. He was a cornerstone of the AARC, offering our organization his wisdom and counsel. But “accomplished lawyer” and “industry insider” are not what Frank was to me. Frank was a guy whose gravelly voice and seemingly droll demeanor was merely the cover for a whip-smart, talented, caring guy with a wry wit and a big heart. Asking Frank’s opinion on something was educational, and a lot of fun – you knew his response was going to be well formed, and if you could see the devious twinkle in his eye, chances are he’d have a perspective that would make you think, smile, or laugh out loud. And in the many social situations and golf rounds that we shared, he was always great company. Thinking of Frank brings a smile to my face – but right now, there are tears there too.
My personal sense of loss obviously pales in comparison to those of his wife Debi (who accompanied Frank at numerous AARC conferences) and their two grown children, who are going through an unspeakably difficult time. Please keep them in your thoughts and prayers. Keep Frank in those thoughts, too – he’s a tough guy to forget, and a really, really tough guy to lose.
Miss you, Frank. RIP.
Chair, The AARC
Existing-Home Sales Descend 6.6% in February
National Association of Realtors | March 22, 2021
- Existing-home sales fell 6.6% in February to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.22 million, but sales are still 9.1% higher than last year.
- The median existing-home sales price rose to $313,000, 15.8% higher from one year ago, with all regions posting double-digit price gains.
- As of the end of February, housing inventory remained at a record-low of 1.03 million units, down by 29.5% year-over-year – a record decline. Properties typically sold in 20 days, also a record low.
WASHINGTON (March 22, 2021) – Existing-home sales declined in February, following two prior months of gains, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Month-over-month, only one major region saw an increase in February, but all four U.S. regions recorded year-over-year gains.
Total existing-home sales,1 https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 6.6% from January to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.22 million in February. Sales in total climbed year-over-year, up 9.1% from a year ago (5.70 million in February 2020).
“Despite the drop in home sales for February – which I would attribute to historically-low inventory – the market is still outperforming pre-pandemic levels,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.
He cautioned of a possible slowdown in growth in the coming months as higher prices and rising mortgage rates will cut into home affordability.
“I still expect this year’s sales to be ahead of last year’s, and with more COVID-19 vaccinations being distributed and available to larger shares of the population, the nation is on the cusp of returning to a sense of normalcy,” Yun said. “Many Americans have been saving money and there’s a strong possibility that once the country fully reopens, those reserves will be unleashed on the economy.”
The median existing-home price2 for all housing types in February was $313,000, up 15.8% from February 2020 ($270,400), as prices rose in every region. February’s national price jump marks 108 straight months of year-over-year gains.
NAR’s 2021 Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report, released last week, highlights some of the effects of these price leaps, including buyers’ struggles with saving enough money for a down payment.
“Home affordability is weakening,” Yun said. “Various stimulus packages are expected and they will indeed help, but an increase in inventory is the best way to address surging home costs.”
According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate(link is external) for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 2.81 in February, up from 2.74% in January. The average commitment rate across all of 2020 was 3.11%.
Total housing inventory3 at the end of February amounted to 1.03 million units, equal to January’s inventory and down 29.5% from one year ago (1.46 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.0-month supply at the current sales pace, slightly up from January’s 1.9-month supply and down from the 3.1-month amount recorded in February 2020. NAR first began tracking the single-family home supply in 1982.
Properties typically remained on the market for 20 days in February, down from both 21 days in January and from 36 days in February 2020. Seventy-four percent of the homes sold in February 2021 were on the market for less than a month.
First-time buyers were responsible for 31% of sales in February, down from 33% in January and from 32% in February 2020. NAR’s 2020 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers – released in late 20204 – revealed that the annual share of first-time buyers was 31%.
Individual investors or second-home buyers, who account for many cash sales, purchased 17% of homes in February, up from 15% in January and equal to the percentage from February 2020. All-cash sales accounted for 22% of transactions in February, up from both 19% in January and from 20% in February 2020.
Distressed sales5 – foreclosures and short sales – represented less than 1% of sales in February, equal to January’s percentage but down from 2% in February 2020.
Single-family and Condo/Co-op Sales
Single-family home sales decreased to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.52 million in February, down 6.6% from 5.91 million in January, and up 8.0% from one year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $317,100 in February, up 16.2% from February 2020.
Existing condominium and co-op sales were recorded at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 700,000 units in February, down 6.7% from January and up 18.6% from one year ago. The median existing condo price was $280,500 in February, an increase of 12.3% from a year ago.
“This year, we’ve seen fair housing protections extended, recognized Realtors®’ remarkable volunteerism, and are collaborating with policymakers to increase revitalization endeavors in numerous neighborhoods,” said NAR President Charlie Oppler, a Realtor® from Franklin Lakes, N.J., and the CEO of Prominent Properties Sotheby’s International Realty. “We have made an incredible amount of notable progress thus far in 2021, and NAR is committed and encouraged to continue those efforts.”
Compared to one year ago, median home prices increased in each of the four major regions.
February 2021 saw existing-home sales in the Northeast fall 11.5%, recording an annual rate of 770,000, a 13.2% increase from a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $356,000, up 20.5% from February 2020.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest dropped 14.4% to an annual rate of 1,310,000 in February, a 2.3% rise from a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $231,800, a 14.2% climb from February 2020.
Existing-home sales in the South decreased 6.1%, posting an annual rate of 2,770,000 in February, up 9.9% from the same time one year ago. The median price in the South was $271,200, a 13.6% increase from a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the West rose 4.6% from the month prior, recording an annual rate of 1,370,000 in February, a 12.3% jump from a year ago. The median price in the West was $493,300, up 20.6% from February 2020.
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The National Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.4 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
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For local information, please contact the local association of Realtors® for data from local multiple listing services (MLS). Local MLS data is the most accurate source of sales and price information in specific areas, although there may be differences in reporting methodology.
NOTE: NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index for February is scheduled for release on March 31, and Existing-Home Sales for March will be released April 22; release times are 10:00 a.m. ET.
1 Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings from Multiple Listing Services. Changes in sales trends outside of MLSs are not captured in the monthly series. NAR rebenchmarks home sales periodically using other sources to assess overall home sales trends, including sales not reported by MLSs.
Existing-home sales, based on closings, differ from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which account for more than 90% of total home sales, are based on a much larger data sample – about 40% of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.
The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.
Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.
2 The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical of market conditions than average prices, which are skewed higher by a relatively small share of upper-end transactions. The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if additional data is received.
The national median condo/co-op price often is higher than the median single-family home price because condos are concentrated in higher-cost housing markets. However, in a given area, single-family homes typically sell for more than condos as seen in NAR’s quarterly metro area price reports.
3 Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982 (prior to 1999, single-family sales accounted for more than 90% of transactions and condos were measured only on a quarterly basis).
4 Survey results represent owner-occupants and differ from separately reported monthly findings from NAR’s Realtors® Confidence Index, which include all types of buyers. Investors are under-represented in the annual study because survey questionnaires are mailed to the addresses of the property purchased and generally are not returned by absentee owners. Results include both new and existing homes.
5 Distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales), days on market, first-time buyers, all-cash transactions and investors are from a monthly survey for the NAR’s Realtors® Confidence Index, posted at nar.realtor.
6 Ways to Design a Better Home in 2021
National Association of Home Builders | March 18, 2021