May 2019 Newsletter

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April showers brought so many beautiful May flowers! It’s time to “spring” into action and show our potential retirees what we have to offer. Many of our communities are filled with hiking trails, water views, and cultural amenities. But most of all, an experience everyone can enjoy. Simply have a look at our “Seal of Approval” communities, or if you’re interested in becoming one, check out AARC Seal of Approval Recipients to learn more.

Roaring 20s Returns….Recruiting Retirees in a New Decade at our annual conference, November 6-8 in Chattanooga, Tennessee. Be sure to take advantage of the early-bird registration starting as low as $325 – Learn More.  The AARC continues to be your resource in the retiree attraction market!

We hope you had a great Memorial Day weekend and took time to remember those that gave the ultimate sacrifice for our freedoms.

Sincerely,

Rachel Baker Chair, The AARC


Roaring 20s Returns….Recruiting Retirees in a New Decade      

Chattanooga, Tennessee – November 6th – 8th, 2019

What’s All the Flapabout? The Roaring Twenties is hitting Chattanooga this fall!

The AARC Annual Conference is pouring new energy and ideas into the retiree community industry.

You already know that the ‘Roaring’ 1920’s were an iconic period—booming economic prosperity, jazz music, flappers, and cultural shifts that changed the country. Back then, like today, ‘cutting-edge’ technology was changing the landscape. In the 20’s, it was things like the washing machine and…the radio (creating a new thing called nation-wide advertising!)

As we find ourselves headed into the NEW Roaring Twenties, it’s geo-location tech, social networks, and unlimited market research available to every potential customer that are changing the way we do business. Next on the horizon, we’re seeing  an increasingly savvy and demanding audience of soon-to-be and current retirees.

Are you excited for what lies ahead OR are you wishing you could enact Prohibition on some of these speed-of-light market changes?

Be inspired and informed by our Keynote speakers, Jason Forrest and Mary Marshall, from the highly acclaimed Forrest Performance Group (FPG). Jason Forrest, CEO & Chief Culture Officer of FPG is recognized for decades of creating high-performance homebuilding cultures through complete training programs. Mary Marshall, Vice President of Marketing at FPG, is a nationally recognized sales expert, coach and leading expert in online learning systems.

FPG is an award-winning sales and leadership training company dedicated to creating your high-performance, high-profit, and “Best Place to Work” culture. We’re not just focused on launching your sales to new heights. We care about creating the sustainable culture behind your sales.

A Message from our Keynote Speaker 

At AARC, we’re ready to help you SEIZE this new, exciting era.

We invite you to join us to learn from the industry’s top influencers this fall…

AARC 2019 Annual Conference:  Nov 6th – 8th
“The Roaring 20s Returns: Recruiting Retirees in a New Decade”
November 6th, 1pm – 5pm (Welcome Reception to follow)
November 7th, 9am – 5pm
November 8th, 9am – Noon
The Read House Hotel, Chattanooga, TN

To learn more or sign-up, visit the AARC Conference page


Mortgage Rates Drop for Fourth Straight Week

Realtor Magazine (NAR)  | May 24, 2019

Mortgage rates continue to decline while lowering borrowing costs for home buyers this spring.

“Mortgage rates fell for the fourth consecutive week and continued the medium-term trend of lower rates since late 2018,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “The drop in mortgage rates is causing purchase demand to rise, and the mix of demand is skewing to the higher end as more affluent consumers are typically more responsive to declines in rates.”

Freddie Mac reports the following national averages with mortgage rates for the week ending May 23:

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 4.06%, with an average 0.5 point, falling from last week’s 4.07% average. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 4.66%.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.51%, with an average 0.4 point, falling from a 3.53% average last week. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 4.15%.
  • 5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 3.68%, with an average 0.4 point, rising from last week’s 3.66% average. A year ago, 5-year ARMs averaged 3.87%.

March Home Prices Increased by 3.7% Year Over Year

CoreLogic  | May 7, 2019

  • Prices increased by 1% between February and March 2019
  • The HPI Forecast indicates prices will increase by 4.8% by March 2020
  • Home-price growth is still trending upward, but at a slower pace than a year ago

CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) and HPI Forecast for March 2019, which shows home prices rose both year over year and month over month. Home prices increased nationally by 3.7% year over year from March 2018. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased by 1% in March 2019. (February 2019 data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results each month.)

National Home Price Change

Looking ahead, after some initial moderation in early 2019, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates home prices will begin to pick up and increase by 4.8% on a year-over-year basis from March 2019 to March 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices are expected to decrease by 0.3% from March 2019 to April 2019. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices calculated using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

“The U.S. housing market continues to cool, primarily due to some of our priciest markets moving into frigid waters,” said Dr. Ralph McLaughlin, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic. “But the broader market looks more temperate as supply and demand come into balance. With mortgage rates flat and inventory picking up, we expect more buyers to take advantage of easing housing market headwinds.”

Home Price Change and Market Conditions

According to the CoreLogic Market Condition Indicators (MCI), an analysis of housing values in the country’s 100 largest metropolitan areas based on housing stock, 35% of metropolitan areas have an overvalued housing market as of March 2019. The MCI analysis categorizes home prices in individual markets as undervalued, at value or overvalued, by comparing home prices to their long-run, sustainable levels, which are supported by local market fundamentals (such as disposable income). Additionally, as of March 2019, 26% of the top 100 metropolitan areas were undervalued, and 39% were at value.

When looking at only the top 50 markets based on housing stock, 40% were overvalued, 16% were undervalued and 44% were at value in March 2019. The MCI analysis defines an overvalued housing market as one in which home prices are at least 10% above the long-term, sustainable level. An undervalued housing market is one in which home prices are at least 10% below the sustainable level.

During the first quarter of 2019, CoreLogic together with RTi Research of Norwalk, Connecticut, conducted an extensive survey measuring consumer-housing sentiment in high-priced markets. The survey respondents indicated high home prices have an impact on high rental prices as well. Nearly 76% of renters and buyers in high-priced markets agreed housing prices in these markets appeared to be driving rental rates up.

“The cost of either buying or renting in expensive markets puts a significant strain on most consumers,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Nearly half of survey respondents – 44% of renters – cited the cost to rent in high-priced housing markets as the number one barrier to entry into homeownership. This is potentially forcing renters to wait longer to have the necessary down payment in these communities.”

Barriers to Homeownership for Renters

The next CoreLogic HPI press release, featuring April 2019 data, will be issued on Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 8:00 a.m. ET.

Methodology

The CoreLogic HPI is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.

About the CoreLogic Consumer Housing Sentiment Study

In the first quarter of 2019, 1,002 renters and homeowners were surveyed by CoreLogic together with RTi Research. This study is a quarterly pulse of U.S. housing market dynamics. Each quarter, the research focuses on a different issue related to current housing topics. This first quarterly study concentrated on consumer sentiment within high-priced markets. The survey has a sampling error of +/- 3.1% at the total respondent level with a 95% confidence level.

About RTi Research

RTi Research is an innovative, global market research and brand strategy consultancy headquartered in Norwalk, CT. Founded in 1979, RTi has been consistently recognized by the American Marketing Association as one of the top 50 U.S. insights companies. The company serves a broad base of leading firms in Financial Services, Consumer Goods, and Pharmaceuticals as well as partnering with leading academic centers of excellence.

Source: CoreLogic

The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Alyson Austin at newsmedia@corelogic.com or Allyse Sanchez at corelogic@ink-co.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic

CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), the leading provider of property insights and solutions, promotes a healthy housing market and thriving communities. Through its enhanced property data solutions, services and technologies, CoreLogic enables realtors, financial institutions, insurance carriers, government agencies and other housing market participants to help millions of people find, acquire and protect their homes. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic HPI Forecast are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.


Builder Confidence Posts Solid Gain in May

National Association of Home Builders  | May 15, 2019

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose three points to 66 in May, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. Builder sentiment is at its highest level since October 2018.

“Builders are busy catching up after a wet winter and many characterize sales as solid, driven by improved demand and ongoing low overall supply,” said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde, a home builder and developer from Torrington, Conn. “However, affordability challenges persist and remain a big impediment to stronger sales.”

“Mortgage rates are hovering just above 4 percent following a challenging fourth quarter of 2018 when they peaked near 5 percent. This lower-interest rate environment, along with ongoing job growth and rising wages, is contributing to a gradual improvement in the marketplace,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “At the same time, builders continue to deal with ongoing labor and lot shortages and rising material costs that are holding back supply and harming affordability.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All the HMI indices posted gains in May. The index measuring current sales conditions rose three points to 72, the component gauging expectations in the next six months edged one point higher to 72 and the metric charting buyer traffic moved up two points to 49.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast posted a six-point gain to 57, the West increased two points to 71, the Midwest gained one point to 54, and the South rose a single point to 68.

Editor’s Note: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is strictly the product of NAHB Economics, and is not seen or influenced by any outside party prior to being released to the public. HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi. More information on housing statistics is also available at housingeconomics.com.