October 2017 Newsletter

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Well fall has made its way in and the leaves are changing, temperatures are milder, and the holidays are approaching.  A perfect time to show all the amenities of your community. As we gear up from our annual conference which has a spectacular array of presenters, we invite you to participate if you haven’t already registered.  You do not want to miss this event with speakers such as Craig Lawn, Judy Randell, Dr. Mark Fagan along with the many panel discussions on ROI, Golf Courses, social media, sales and marketing, economic impact study’s just to name a few!  The AARC prides itself on providing formative resources for our members and to help reach that potential retiree and visitors with as much information to make a decision on their next step in life.   We hope to see you in Wilmington next month!

The latest measure of the U.S. economy has been released: new home sales.  The number of new homes sold in August dropped to 560,000 at an annualized rate, a decline of 3.4% from the rate in July and 1.2% from the rate in August 2016.  This continues a trend of relatively slow sales by historical standards.  Source: Census Bureau (5-page PDF)

Housing starts decreased by 4.7% in September from the previous month.  The decline was nearly equal for single-family homes and larger types of residential housing.  Authorizations for single-family homes were up by 2.4% from the previous month, however, a potential sign of future growth. Source: Census Bureau (7-page PDF)

Sincerely,

Andre’ Nabors Chair, The AARC



Catch the Wave: The 2017 AARC Conference. November 15-17, 2017. Wilmington, NC

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While the conference is just around the corner it is not to late to sign up to join us for the 2017 Conference in Wilmington, NC.  Visit the AARC Conference Sign Up Page now to assure your spot at the 2017 Annual Conference – Conference Sign Up Page

The 2017 conference will feature an expanded lineup of educational workshops, panel discussions and research presentations, headed by an all-star line-up of retiree recruitment experts, including economic development professionals, real estate developers, specialized software consultants and publishers of print and digital retirement publications.

Also on the agenda is an off-site visit to Compass Pointe, where Legacy Homes by Bill Clark has built the 2017 Ideal Home featured in ideal-Living Magazine.  Reception to follow, sponsored by ideal-Living Magazine.

Sessions Include…

Judy Randall – 25 year Travel and Tourism veteran shares her unique insights to help your team reach the next level of Travel and Tourism Marketing

Craig Lawn, Industry Insights from one of the nation’s top Real Estate Sales and Marketing Professionals

Golf Courses – Turning What Some Consider a Liability Into an Asset

The Changing Club Paradigm – Membership Options for Today’s Retiree Club Member

Social Media Marketing – Today, Tomorrow and Beyond…

40 Years of Evolution – How one Retiree Home Builder Continues to Evolve

Real Estate Tech Briefing – How to Connect to Today’s Retirement Buyer

Plus Many More!

Visit the AARC Conference Sign Up Page now to assure your spot at the 2017 Annual Conference – Conference Sign Up Page

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Luxury Homes Can’t Keep Up With High Demand

Diana Olick, CNBC.com | October 26, 2017

  • The top 5 percent of homes by price sold in the third quarter saw their values increase 4.9 percent compared with a year ago, hitting an average of $1.71 million, according to Redfin.
  • The number of homes for sale priced at or above $1 million fell just over 18 percent compared with the same period last year.

Screen Shot 2017-10-31 at 10.03.25 AMThe supply shortage that has been plaguing the nation’s housing market for the past two years has now affected the most expensive homes.

The number of multimillion-dollar listings is suddenly dropping, and that is only making these pricey homes, well, pricier.

The top 5 percent of homes by price sold in the third quarter saw their values increase 4.9 percent compared with a year ago, hitting an average of $1.71 million, according to Redfin, a real estate brokerage.

The higher prices are the result of a sharp decline in listings in the luxury sector. The number of homes for sale priced at or above $1 million fell just over 18 percent compared with the same period last year.

“There is still strong buyer demand for high-end homes,” said Redfin’s chief economist, Nela Richardson. “Despite declining inventory, luxury sales soared in the third quarter.”

Sales of homes priced at or above $1 million were up 11 percent from a year ago, while sales of homes priced at or above $5 million were up almost as much at 10 percent, Richardson explained.

At the ultra-high end, the number of homes priced at or above $5 million fell 19 percent. This marked the first quarter in which super luxury listings fell year over year since Redfin began reporting on the luxury market in 2014.

Given the high demand, supplies will likely continue to fall. Homebuilders are turning their attention to the lower end of the market, where demand has been rising for years and where the lack of supply is acute. The average price for nonluxury homes was $336,000 in the third quarter, up 5.3 percent compared with a year earlier.

Luxury homes are also selling faster, although not as fast as the rest of the market. Luxury homes in the third quarter sold on an average of 70 days, four days faster than a year ago. Nonluxury homes sold on an average of 53 days, a full week faster than last year.

There may be several reasons for the surge in luxury demand. The U.S. stock market has been on a tear all year, hitting new highs almost daily. Demand from foreign buyers, who tend to favor the luxury market, has also been strong.

Of course all real estate is local, and high-end homes are no different. The town of Longmont, Colorado, led the nation with the biggest annual price jump in the luxury sector. The average price increased 34.7 percent to $1.55 million compared with last year. Fort Lauderdale, Florida, also saw big gains in luxury prices, (+28.7 percent) as did St. Petersburg, Florida, (+19.6 percent).

The average price for a luxury home fell furthest in the third quarter in the cities of Delray Beach, Florida, San Francisco and Boca Raton, Florida, where prices fell 26.9 percent, 14.7 percent and 13.8 percent, respectively, compared with last year.



Home prices reach new all-time highs in August

Micheal Sheetz, CNBC.com | October 31, 2017

  • The U.S. National Home Price NSA Index rose 6.8 percent in August, according to data from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller.
  • “Home prices have reached new all-time highs,” S&P Dow Jones indexes managing director David Blitzer said.

Screen Shot 2017-10-31 at 10.07.02 AMThe S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index rose more than expected in August, hitting an all-time high.

National home prices continued to rise in August, reporting a 6.1 percent annual gain on the S&P’s most broad indicator. This was better than the 5.8 percent increase expected by economists polled by Reuters.

“Home price increases appear to be unstoppable,” S&P Dow Jones indexes managing director David Blitzer said, before adding that national “home prices have reached new all-time highs.”

 The latest report was a gain from the 5.9 percent increase in July.

Another key index, which covers home prices in 20 cities across the U.S., registered 5.9 percent in August, up from 5.8 in July.

Seasonally adjusted, nine of the 20 cities in the composite reported price increases in the year ending August 2017. Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Diego reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities.


Don’t Give Up, Buyers: More Newly Constructed Homes Are On the Way

Claire Trapasso, Realtor.com |
September 19, 2017

Screen Shot 2017-10-31 at 10.11.49 AMIt’s not much fun being a home buyer these days, with the lack of available homes driving prices—and stress levels—to new highs. But it’s about to get a bit better for those seeking to move into a newly constructed home of their very own.

Permits, the best indicator of how many newly built homes will rise over the next few months, were up in August, according to the seasonally adjusted numbers in the latest residential sales report jointly released by the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Builders were issued 5.7% more permits from July to August and 8.3% more than August 2016.

(The numbers we looked at have been smoothed out over a year to account for seasonal fluctuations in the market.)

However, the bulk of those increased permits were to put up condo and apartment buildings with five or more units. After a dip in July, permits for those buildings rebounded, shooting up 22.8% month over month and 10.2% year over year.

Meanwhile, the number of permits for those perennially in-demand single-family homes—the typical standalone abodes that usually come with yards— dipped 1.5% from July. But they were up 7.7% over August 2016.

“It’s not spectacular construction growth, but it’s slow and steady in the right direction,” says Chief Economist Danielle Hale of realtor.com®. “Eventually, the pickup in single-family home construction will mean [buyers] will have more options. Especially with the limited number of sales right now, more options are really needed.”

Housing starts, where new construction has begun but isn’t completed yet, fell 0.8% from July to August. But it rose 1.4% from the same month a year earlier. That’s likely to fall further, however, as more construction workers begin to rebuild the devastating damage caused by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.

“The shortage of labor in construction will further intensify as more workers concentrate on rebuilding rather than on new construction,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors®, said in a statement.

The other big bout of bad news was that the number of completed residences fell 10.2% month over month in August. It was up a little, by 3.4%, year over year. Single-family homes, again, fell the most, by 13.3%, from July to August and were down 2.7% annually.

It’s important to note that new homes aren’t for everyone. They cost significantly more, about 21.4% more to be exact, than existing homes, which have been previously lived in. The median price of an existing home was $258,300 compared with $313,700 for a newly built home in July, according to the most recent data from NAR and the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

“As new construction continues to increase, home shoppers will eventually have more [choices] and a bit more time to make purchase decisions compared to today’s quick-moving housing market,” Hale says.

 Clare Trapasso is the senior news editor of realtor.com and an adjunct journalism professor. She previously wrote for a Financial Times publication and the New York Daily News. Contact her at clare.trapasso@move.com.